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Tema: Competencia Grandes Potencias

Russia is forming a new World Order

Russia was forced to scrap the old world order, now its decisions determine the future of the world

INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES 

On February 22, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR changes the world order. On February 24, even those who didn’t realise this realised that the world had changed when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in connection with the situation in Donbass.

Due to the fact that the main logic of the development of events was predicted in the RUSSTRAT material “Global trends and challenges for Russia in 2022“, it remains only to continue the logical chain, taking into account the new introductory notes, in order to understand the further course of events.

The forecast indicated that the system of the old world order is collapsing and, realising this, the United States announced a new union – Britain-USA-Australia (AUKUS). Russia, in turn, reflected the scrapping of the former world system in its security demands to the United States, which were dubbed the “ultimatum”.

Since October 2021, the media controlled by the US Democratic Party has been spreading an information wave about a possible Russian attack on Ukraine. As was indicated in the forecast, inside the White House there was a struggle between conditional “doves” and “hawks”, some promoted a new approach to conducting US foreign policy – based on agreements, while others adhered to the old paradigm of US hegemony. In addition, the conduct of US foreign policy was influenced by Britain, which needed to weaken continental Europe.

Given the internal political situation, it was predicted that the “hawks” would seize the initiative and try to draw Russia into the conflict with Ukraine through provocation. They will need to maximise the hysteria about the Russian invasion, and then “virtually” save Ukraine and punish the” aggressor ” with unprecedented sanctions.

By doing so, they have several goals in mind. Firstly, the United States is restoring its eroded status as a tough player and a leader in the international arena. Secondly, during the Congress electoral campaign, the Democratic Party will have something to fend off the criticism of Republicans about the problematic exit from Afghanistan.

Thirdly, NATO will once again show its relevance in Europe, which allows the “deep state”, at least, to maintain the same financial flows. Fourthly, under certain conditions, under the “aggression of Russia” there is a chance to write off the volatility in the stock markets, which will occur as a result of an increase in the Federal Reserve rate.

Apparently, having considered this scenario, the Russian leadership decided to “strike first”, as our president previously expressed it, since sanctions against Russia would still have been imposed on any other occasion.

Let me remind you that back in 2018, Vladimir Putin said that it would be good if all countries that want to impose sanctions against Russia did so “as quickly as possible”. “This would give us a free hand to protect our national interests by means that we consider most effective for us,” the Russian president said.

Thus, using the information wave generated by the West and an attempt to draw Russia into a conflict with Ukraine, by intensifying the fighting of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass, the Russian president did a motion in the style of Aikido, using the enemy’s energy against itself. Most likely, this is how the special military operation for the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine was born.

This, of course, disrupted some of the US’ plans. At the same time, they imposed the promised “unprecedented sanctions” on Russian banks and state-owned companies. On February 24, after announcing a new package of sanctions, Joe Biden, answering questions from journalists, let slip that “no one expects” that sanctions will “prevent something” in Russia’s actions, and then the White House advisers even had to soften this statement.

In addition, Biden said that American troops will not fight with Russia in Ukraine, but are sent to Europe “to protect NATO allies and support allies on the eastern flank”.

Accordingly, the United States achieved certain goals: it punished Russia with “unprecedented sanctions”, restored the image of the leader of the Western world, crushing the countries of the old world under the “flag of fighting the aggressor”. NATO has once again shown its relevance in Europe, and deep state stakeholders and related firms have received new cash injections amid the war hysteria.

Let’s look at Britain’s goals: it probably still thinks that it has also succeeded in provoking an open conflict in Europe.

Now it remains for the United States to get out of the situation in Ukraine while maintaining the status of “saviour”. Despite the fact that they will definitely not provide direct military assistance. Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will respond harshly to any intervention by external forces and the consequences will be such as history has not yet seen.

In this regard, it is not at all surprising that on the second day of the special operation, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine has been left alone, no one is ready to fight together with Ukraine. All the help that Zelensky could count on is his evacuation, as was reported by NBC News.

Now Zelensky suggests that he is ready to discuss the neutral status of Ukraine with Russia: “I declare that we are not afraid of Russia, we are not afraid to talk to Russia, to talk about everything: security guarantees for our country and a neutral status, but what guarantees will we have?”

On March 1, Joe Biden will deliver his annual address to Congress, and given the difficult economic situation in the United States, as well as his repeated narrative that the Americans will have to pay for the principles of democracy promoted by the United States, in light of events in Ukraine, we should expect that Russia will be declared as the culprit of this situation.

However, later, due to the start of the congressional election race, the United States will exert tacit pressure on Zelensky to negotiate with Russia on a neutral status, before he loses his position, and Ukraine itself does not have time to cease to exist as a state entity.

The fact is that if the situation in Afghanistan repeats with Ukraine, it will finally finish off Joe Biden’s approval rating, which will affect the Democratic party as a whole, and this is very much feared in the United States, writes Politico.

For the American electorate, there will be enough information waves in the media that the United States “saved” Ukraine from disappearing with its sanctions, and at the same time not a single American soldier was injured. This is very important in light of the events in Afghanistan and the bipartisan anti-war coalition that has formed in the US Congress. The agreements reached between Russia and Ukraine will be presented as the desire of the Ukrainian people themselves.

In connection with a dense stream of information, it is worth recalling that on the first day of the special operation, the Vladimir Putin’s Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that Moscow was ready for talks with Kiev: “The President (of Russia) formulated his vision of what we would expect from Ukraine in order for the conceptual “red-line” problems to be resolved. This is a neutral status, this is a refusal to deploy weapons. The question here is whether the leadership of Ukraine is ready for this.”

Probably, one can take for truth the information of anonymous sources that at 2 a.m. on February 24, Zelensky received an ultimatum from Moscow to recognise the borders of the L/DPR and implement the Minsk Agreements, but after consultations with the UK, he refused. This assumption can be made in connection with the statement of the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko that at about this time the leadership of Ukraine was warned about a possible special operation of Russia.

Nevertheless, the fighting in Ukraine continues, and Russia will still achieve acceptable results for itself, since time is on its side. For example, on the night of February 24, Ukraine completely disconnected from the power systems of Russia and Belarus to test offline operation and connect it to the European network in the future. If the power system is not powered back up on February 26, energy overruns and a further system collapse will soon begin.

Russia still has a lot of different options for putting pressure on Ukraine that have not yet been used. Vladimir Putin initially stated that the special operation does not imply the occupation of Ukraine, so it will remain in one form or another acceptable to Russia after the signing of the relevant agreements. Even if these agreements are signed with Zelensky, he will not be envied, since all political opponents who have not fled abroad will gnaw at him.

Many people ask the question: “Was it possible to deal with Ukraine differently?”.

To begin with, one should pay attention to the following quote from Vladimir Putin: “These issues (recognitions of the L/DPR) are very closely related to global security issues in the world and on the European continent in particular. The use of Ukraine as an instrument of confrontation with Russia poses a serious, very big threat.

That is why, at the end of last year, we stepped up our work with our partners in Washington and NATO to finally agree on security measures and ensure the country’s peaceful and prosperous development in peaceful conditions.”

Also at a meeting with Russian entrepreneurs, he said: “What is happening (the special operation) is a forced measure. We were simply left with no chance to do otherwise. Security risks were created in such a way that it was impossible to respond by other means. All attempts (to implement diplomacy) came to zero. To be honest, I’m surprised. Well, we haven’t moved a millimetre on any issue.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has previously explained that the US cannot make concessions to Russia, as this would violate the rules established in Europe after the Cold War and could lead to disastrous results for the West.

Therefore, Russia was forced to initiate the breakdown of the old world order, which was formed after the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War and its collapse, dominated by the United States and its satellites. Of course, this will entail the further scrapping of the UN Institute and its components. However, after the end of the Cold War, this institution immediately showed its failure, allowing the aggression of NATO countries and the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, as well as allowing the US invasion of Iraq.

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, created with the support of the United Nations, openly falsified data on chemical attacks in Syria, which were carried out by the White Helmets. It ignored Russia’s objective and legitimate demands in the Skripal-Navalny case, in the interests of the Western media’s version of events.

As was mentioned in the RUSSTRAT article “Russia has already split the united front of Western countries“, the old global economic system is collapsing. The current crisis is a systemic one (a phase one in another interpretation), not a cyclical one, so the West itself is least prepared for this transformation, and states with a greater share of autarky, such as Russia, will have the advantage.

Western countries will have to “live within their means”, reducing the former standard of living of their citizens, which will inevitably lead to social unrest, which is already taking place against the background of distrust of governments due to anti-coronavirus restrictions. The United States will soon begin to scale back its presence in Europe, as China and the Pacific region are now a more important priority for them than “protecting Europeans from Russian aggression”.

All of this will happen this decade. Therefore Russia itself defines the contours of its security, builds European security and thus forms a new world order.

Source: https://russtrat.ru/en/analytics_/27-february-2022-1457-9030

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