Russia is playing a simultaneous game on the diplomatic, military and economic fronts

INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES 

Diplomatic front

The recent reaction in many strata of Russian society to the statement made by the head of the negotiating delegation on the Ukrainian track, Mr. Medinsky, about approaching the contours of certain peace agreements, was indicative. On the one hand, the degree of credulity of a certain number of citizens. Easily inflated, including from outside, due to their low awareness. On the other hand, whatever you say, it highlighted the people’s readiness in the most diverse strata of our multinational Russian society to go to Victory, to complete the triumph of justice.

Here, two days later, news from the fields about the abandonment of positions near Kiev was added, which was met with less alarmism, but still on the same wave. The strikes on Belgorod brought an even greater collective focus to the mass perception of the war.

With a certain degree of confidence, we can assume that among those interested in RUSSTRAAT materials, the majority soberly assesses the situation. The Institute covers in detail both the course of the special operation on the territory of Ukraine, as well as diplomatic canons and nuances to form an objective assessment. It is enough to recall the analysis of the protocol in the material where British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss is ostentatiously sent to the diplomatic toilet upon arrival in Russia. Where does she belong, in fact, according to the established historical Russian idea of the “permanent occupation of an Englishwoman”. And this is an understatement in the current wartime circumstances.

With the understanding that “protocol is everything”, it is difficult to make a mistake when looking at the proposed entourage of the final press conference of the Turkish round, which was attended by Russian representatives. Take a good look! Questions of war and peace are voiced in front of a small glass round table, clumsily built and moving around. It barely has a lot of microphones piled up on it, one of them even drops when a representative of the Ministry of Defence takes the floor after Medinsky.

The entourage of the famous tavern “13 chairs” begins to intrusively appear for those watching this negotiation performance. It sticks out even in the surrounding banquet and restaurant halls of the tavern, where negotiations were held.

But you can’t envy Mr. Medinsky. He comes in contact with such dodgy ghouls, literally drinking blood, that he becomes energetically drained. The infernal stuff that stuck to the body of Ukraine as a result of the Maidan continues to flow through its human tools, through Ukrainian representatives. And then the respected Vladimir Rostislavovich had to play the role of seeking a compromise and a deal with this Evil.

Despite the fact that the Russian leadership is well aware of the essence of the post-Maidan Ukrainian side, the negotiation track remains both a channel and a field of play at the same time. The channel will still be needed at later stages of the special military operation.

There, however, there may be some nuances, because the military administration is not in the hands of Zelensky, but not the point. Now it is important to send a common message to the world about our efforts to resolve the conflict. There is more and more highlighting of the non-negotiability of the Ukrainian side. The field of play is there, it gives another degree of freedom in a Big Game, and no one is going to give it up.

In the future, as Kiev approaches the end of its agony, some players in the West may need arguments in favour of revising their position. Here Ukrainian Nazism is unexpectedly found, and their ability to reject the current reasonable proposals, multiplying victims and destruction.

So for what purpose and for whom was this gesture made, this “demarche”? After all, it is ridiculous to talk about certain games with the pianist and his team at these stages. Until the military solution of the issue with the UAF grouping in the Donetsk-Lugansk direction, it’s possible to not look in the direction of the diplomatic “tavern of 13 chairs” at all.

There is not and cannot be on this field any flirting or creating false goals for the Americans, as with their island poodle. With the Anglo-Saxons now there is a remote fight of the highest stakes, no one will make any concessions on such occasions. With the Europeans, with their hysteria and military supplies, something is similar in this regard – they are in varying degrees of readiness to follow in the wake of the former hegemon. Here, too, neither side is yet thinking about any rollbacks and “reducing the sanctions pressure”.

Let’s look at the other planes of our game, and the answer is highly likely to be outlined in front of us. The general background of the Istanbul statements implied “significant de-escalation” on our part. There was a serious decline in activity. Three days later, the world was shown the following confirmation of this, the next bright marker – the troops from Gostomel and Bucha were withdrawn from Kiev. Clearly, a certain favourable background was being created. The background is peacemaking, soothing, and shows the direction of the conflict’s decline through weighty markers.

Who was it intended for, and did this carefully drawn picture correspond to real military reality and our future plans?

Hot front

Let’s take a closer look at the military component, and all doubts will be dispelled. Across the country, the reception of volunteers in military registration and enlistment offices is gaining momentum. They gather men with already existing military specialties, especially with combat experience, and offer a contract with high material security, insurance, and benefits. These are tens of thousands of volunteers! Then they are trained by express and organised.

Let us pay attention to the reserves that have not been introduced, accumulated before the start of the special military operation. For several weeks now, enemy military departments have been hearing about the concentration of about 200,000 personnel in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine. Currently, this topic is especially exaggerated. But the reserve is not going to be introduced anywhere yet, the command is insured tenfold and manages with the initial forces of the special military operation.

In the occupied southern territories of Ukraine, where no decrease in activity has been announced, the construction of military-civil administrations is in full swing. No one is going to leave here. And in some places, where such a decrease in activity is announced, there is a further “security administration” process, as in the Chernigov and Sumy directions.

A general battle of strategic importance is being planned on this hot front. In the Lugansk-Donetsk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are pulling reinforcements from all corners of Ukraine to prevent a cauldron. Our troops are also regrouping and preparing accordingly.

Our initial expectation to support the so-called opposition Ukrainian elite groups of the old formation, to neutral status for certain garrisons and units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was not justified. Although, in my opinion, there were already agreements and their “material support”. Everything was crossed out by a hellish mixture of betrayal and lightning-fast actions of the SBU, the CIA and some other intelligence agencies. Now, in the crucible of change, the old elites will go to the furnace, and a new elite will be forged.

We have adjusted our plans and outlined a new strategy. No one backs down from the tasks set, all of them will be completed over time. Despite the fact that a huge group was accumulated in the Kiev agglomeration to take it under control, now the focus is shifting. From Kiev, Chernigov, Kharkov, Sumy, the General Staff of the Russian Federation is gathering significant forces.

In the coming weeks, as a result of these decisive battles, when the bulk of the combat-ready Ukrainian units are very likely to be ground up, completely different times will come on the negotiating field.

Here it is worth referring to some classics of geopolitical science, which claim that the main centre of gravity of any state is in its army. Not the capture of the capital, but the destruction of the main army forces most affects the state’s stability. Who is there and how they will sing in the above-mentioned “tavern” after this debacle – we will observe. But for our people, this will only be the beginning of the concert. Accordingly, the final chords on the diplomatic front will be far away.

Economic front

At the same time, Russia is waging war on all fronts, and uses any field in conjunction with others. At the moment, when launching Vladimir Putin’s long-awaited historic decision to switch to rubles, the economic front is one of the most important, if not the most important.

It is here that a thermonuclear strike is being struck, which can finally bury the global hegemony of the dollar. America is built on these pillars, it is its skeleton, on which everything else is built up. If we pull out their backbone, the US will crumble, cease to exist as a player, falling into a frenzy on both coasts, with some semblance of Wild West-style order preserved locally. With all the ensuing train of problems for us and the world – how to seize control of the nuclear button.

In such a situation, a weakened and writhing Britain will realise how vulnerable it is and behave like a cornered rat, biting in leaps and bounds. It will decide its own fate and push us to take action. But this, of course, will not happen immediately, the degree will increase gradually, it will take several years. And we will also keep silent about Poland, and about some other countries whose role is interestingly exposed in the Ukrainian abscess that is being opened now, including secret nuclear developments.

Heaven forbid that this does not happen at all, and it is possible to build a new world without such sacrifices. But who are we to move even a millimetre of these shifting and colliding arrays of geopolitical tectonic plates? The pattern of their collision was drawn by a hand from Above for a long time, The forces on both sides participating in what is happening before our eyes are unimaginably powerful. The human world for them is a kind of front line, where divine and demonic principles, Good and Evil, fight for our souls. The significance of a real war is titanic.

As we can see, on this most important economic field of the ongoing war, our leader was building agreements with the main players of the new world pool that is currently being created. This, as has long been predicted, and as the author has been talking about for many years, will be based on the Eurasian Triangle of the Russian Federation-China-India. Russia will be the pinnacle that creates an agenda on all fronts, including the ideological one.

Russia has also woven a similar triangle into this pool in the Middle East, which has been reformatted by its own long efforts, and where it has already become a peak connecting Iran with Turkey. Iran’s steps in the general attack on the dollar and its owners are clearly visible to everyone, as is Turkey’s desire to lend us a shoulder with its banking system to circumvent sanctions, as well as the lightning-fast readiness of these states to fill any voids in the Russian market with their goods and services.

Everyone in this “Kremlin pool” of countries includes their pre-prepared moves in a certain order. For each player, the space where they exit the dollar matrix should be the most protected and prepared. Like Iran with a Chinese direction, fundamental and long-term, where the borders are outlined by contracts for more than 300 billion green wrappers (now without them). At the Saud House, everything is also reinforced concrete in this direction.

For Russia, the most protected area where it could act in this way, where it could start with a guarantee, is the gas sector. And it is in the European direction, because it was carefully prepared:

– victories in the gas war over American shale competitors;

– the unspoken creation of “gas OPEC” together with Qatar;

– diversification and expansion of ways and means of delivery;

– bringing the share of Russian gas in the entire European gas sector (including liquefied gas) to 43%, and in European imports (350-360 billion cubic meters per year) – about 60% of all supplies;

– total, about 60%, dependence of Germany on our supplies;

– unprecedented price levels, record inventory declines, record demand and shortages.

Europe simply has no other choice but to start paying in rubles. Qatar, acting as “Captain Obvious”, never tired of telling the next European delegations who came in a panic to look for a replacement: there is nothing to replace Russian gas on the European market in the coming years. Period.

What else one can be sure of is the upcoming Polish horse circus on this occasion. The long-term contract with Gazprom is about to end, and it has long been in the Polish plans not to renew it. The Poles will probably prefer to publicly beat their chests in the media and reproach Germany and many around them with their own “refusal” of what was not planned to be acquired anyway.

They will probably arrange another trip to arbitration, there will be a lot of aplomb and noise. Some of the European countries with minimal addiction will participate and sing along. Only now all this arrogant fuss, along with their arbitrations, will not be paid the slightest attention outside the Kremlin walls, these are completely different times.

The obvious logic of the moment is that in addition to the stick, the Russian side, we have no doubt, will also use a carrot. German companies, like many other companies that have cut billions in the gas boom, can’t just leave such profits behind. And if they are also offered a serious discount – no political barriers will stop them.

Also, for starters, “for bait”, there is no emphasis on forcing counterparties to buy and search for rubles. For now, it is enough to buy them from Gazprom, “entering the currency” in its “exchange office”. Miracles will come for them a little later, when they begin to comprehend all the nuances of the ruble exchange rate in the interaction of these “K” accounts.

By the way, well, the obvious handwriting of the “warriors” (the second socionic quadra), those who work now in the “area of light” described in previous materials. All their similar “power” prefixes, such as M, or department “K” – in the same vein. In general, the letter M, which is present at the end of the name of some civilian goods, is always easy to calculate the former military personnel involved in its production and release.

While we are offering and starting with the “light” option, we just need to get things moving. Then, over time, all gas contracts will flow into the ruble channel, and all Russian economic giants, their goods and services will be transferred to settlements in national currencies. Right now, many places are preparing for this.

This is a historically important turning point. It requires careful integration of work on other fronts. The wildfowl is driven into a pen, creating all the conditions for this. Draw the most favourable background for this purpose. Or, as we described in the first, diplomatic section of this article:

Clearly, a certain favourable background was being created. The background is peacemaking, soothing, and shows the direction of the conflict’s decline through weighty markers.

Conclusion – on this diplomatic front, the positive markers that we continuously put out at the right moment give the European economic entities additional arguments that they need now in their confrontation with the political authorities. The desired background is created.

Source: https://russtrat.ru/en/reports_/5-april-2022-1249-9792